Executive Summary
The global economic environment has changed significantly in just the last 8 years. Central banks have become more assertive in the market places, inflation measured by CPI has risen, the dollar index has dropped, political rhetoric is highly inflammatory with a focus on tariffs, trade wars, currency wars, protectionism, nationalism, and interventionism all being heard more and more in recent months and years. For a finance manager all of these variables must be considered when focusing on how to plan for risk, how to guide the firm’s financial decisions, and how to protect cash flow. This paper identifies some of the main challenges that a financial manager will face in the light of changing economic conditions—namely, how rising interest rates, exchange rates and inflation rates will impact cash flow, and how the flow of information must be managed in order to balance strategic aims with economic uncertainties and economic realities. This paper recommends that financial managers focus specifically on cultivating a clear picture of how the macroeconomic picture is evolving, where markets are being led and why, and how the next ten years is likely to turn out. With this picture in mind, the financial manager will be better positioned to guide his various departments in making the right choices.
The macroeconomic environment has changed substantially since 2008 as a result of central banks partaking of loose monetary policy known as quantitative easing (QE), in which trillions of dollars, yen, Euros, renminbi and pounds were printed to prop up markets—and the result has been creeping inflation (as Friedman points out, a sharp increase in the quantity of money is always what leads to inflation) coupled with a slowing economy and high unemployment—aka stagflation (Corsi & Sornette, 2014; Heller, 2017). While 2017 saw nothing but green for equities, volatility has returned with a vengeance in 2018. Now that the Fed is tightening and raising the federal funds rate, all eyes are on bond yields as the price of risk assets lingers on the brink of a potential precipice. Moreover, with the threat of trade wars looming, nationalism and protectionism rising financial managers find themselves...
Though the central banks may well choose to intervene once more to save markets, it also may well be too late for more loose monetary policy to do any good as the market sets about reasserting itself in the face of a global experiment in playing command and control economy comes to an end. This paper will critically asses the challenges faced by financial managers due to changes in the macroeconomic environment and how these impact businesses operations.
Consequences related to changes in strategies and priorities in the way departments adjust are numerous and invariably complex. As Ilie (2015) states: “the more complex the economic system, the more complex the businesses, the more complex the interaction between economic players in a global economy, and the more uncertainties one has to face in these turbulent times, the more complex the role of managers become, including the role of financial managers” (p. 726). Indeed, uncertainty and rising risk places new pressures on finance managers—and in order to cope, the finance manager must have access to technical capabilities that allow for streamlined processes to be put in place. Challenges that the finance manager will face include: regulation changes; globalization factors (such as trade); technological issues (such as how data is used, how algorithmic trading is conducted, and how markets move based on these various inputs); risk; stakeholder management, strategic positioning; reporting; and the availability of highly-talented employees.
One of the main challenges that managers will face includes simply handling the flow of information: “being flooded with information, the finance departments face an imperative change in order to narrow the information gap, the gap between the information they can access and analyze and the one they need in order to make decisions” (Ilie, 2015, p. 728). Using information appropriately, whether it is in a risk management department, on the trading floors, or in the investment department is critical to the financial manager’s success. Macroeconomic shocks, for example, can impact cash flows and there should be some…
